MLB Offseason Survey: Executives Predict Free Agency, Trades
As Major League Baseball heads into the offseason, all eyes are on the potential player movement that could shape the upcoming season. From free-agent signings to trades, the offseason is often where contenders solidify their rosters, while rebuilding teams position themselves for the future. To gauge the landscape of the MLB offseason, we reached out to a collection of executives, general managers, and baseball insiders to predict how the free-agent market and trade rumors will unfold. With their input, we aim to provide an in-depth preview of what to expect as the hot stove heats up.
Free Agency Forecast: Major Players to Watch
The free-agent market is the focal point of every offseason, and 2024 is no exception. With a mix of elite talent and intriguing potential, executives and insiders see several key storylines playing out in the coming months.
1. Shohei Ohtani: The Most Coveted Free Agent Ever?
There’s no question that Shohei Ohtani is the marquee name in free agency, and he’s expected to break records both in terms of contract value and the overall scope of his impact on the market. The two-way superstar is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his combination of elite pitching and hitting has made him the most sought-after player in recent memory.
Predictions:
Destination: While Ohtani is expected to take his time evaluating suitors, teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, and New York Mets are seen as front-runners due to their financial power, desire for a transformative player, and ability to support Ohtani’s unique two-way role.
Contract: Executives predict a deal surpassing $500 million, making Ohtani the first player in MLB history to reach that milestone. The length of the contract may vary depending on his recovery timeline, but many believe Ohtani will secure a long-term deal despite the uncertainty surrounding his return to pitching.
2. Yamamoto and Other Elite Pitchers
Beyond Ohtani, the pitching market in 2024 is expected to be stacked with talent. One name generating considerable buzz is Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is set to transition to MLB after an impressive career in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB).
Predictions:
Yamamoto’s Market: MLB teams are keenly watching Yamamoto’s performance in the coming months. His fastball, slider, and command have earned rave reviews, and it’s widely expected that he’ll command a massive contract. The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers are among the favorites to land him, though a surprise suitor could emerge.
Other Free-Agent Starters: Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, and Marcus Stroman are expected to cash in on the open market. While Snell is coming off a Cy Young-winning season, the consistency of Nola and the reliability of Stroman make them highly attractive to teams in need of front-line rotation help.
3. Elite Position Players: The Shortstop Market and More
In addition to the pitchers, the position-player market features several high-impact free agents, particularly in the middle infield. Among the top names are shortstops like Corey Seager, Xander Bogaerts, and Francisco Lindor, who are expected to be difference-makers for any team that lands them.
Predictions:
Elite Shortstops: Teams in need of a franchise shortstop will be eyeing players like Carlos Correa, who, despite his injury concerns, remains one of the most talented all-around players available. Similarly, free agents like Dansby Swanson and Tim Anderson are expected to draw significant interest.
Other Position Players: Power hitters like Matt Olson, Cody Bellinger, and Juan Soto may also be in the conversation, especially with teams looking to shore up their outfields or middle of the order.
Trade Market Analysis: Potential Deals and Destinations
While free agency gets the headlines, trades are often just as pivotal in shaping a team’s future. Executives expect a highly active trade market, driven by both teams looking to contend and those in rebuilding phases.
1. Juan Soto: The Biggest Trade Chip
One of the most fascinating trade scenarios involves outfielder Juan Soto, whose contract situation with the San Diego Padres has raised questions about his long-term future in San Diego. Soto is a generational talent, and teams will likely be lining up for a chance to acquire him.
Predictions:
Trade Demand: Executives see Soto as a potentially game-changing addition to any team, and the Padres may ultimately decide that trading him—before he becomes a free agent in a few years—is the best path forward. Expect teams like the New York Yankees, New York Mets, and Chicago Cubs to be in the mix, all of whom could offer significant packages of prospects and major-league talent.
What’s Next for Soto? Soto’s versatility in the
