There is, seemingly, a consensus right now that what the Cincinnati Reds really need is an outfield bat. I don’t disagree that they do need an outfielder who can hit. But I do disagree with the idea that this is their most pressing need.
What the Reds need is a the absolute best hitter they can get. Let me explain why.
A lot of us (I include myself here) have a tendency to treat the less defensively demanding positions as places where you can stick a guy who has been crowded out at his “natural” position. To an extent, that’s true. But it comes with a caveat. He has to hit enough to justify his placement.
There are two positions that are almost entirely about offensive production. Designated Hitter and First Base. Last year, when playing Designated Hitter, Reds batters generated -3.0 fWAR. Worst in baseball. When playing first base, Reds batters generated -1.8 fWAR. Also, worst in the league.
The outfield was bad and so was third base (more on those spots in a minute), but these two spots were abysmal. Why? Because the players who were put there did not hit at all. (As an aside, when you look this up, I recommend using “Positional Split” on FanGraphs as opposed to “Primary Position” because this will give you the data for only the position you are looking at.)
The Reds’ OPS at first base last year was .641. The league OPS at first base was .736. The Reds’ OPS at DH was .599 (vomit) and the league’s was .742. And that’s not even park-adjusted.
It was bad. No contending team can have such immense black holes from those two spots in the lineup. Now let’s look at the list of six offending positions where the Reds pretty much have to get better if they want to compete:
With the lone exception of India, those guys all have one thing in common: They were good in 2023 and bad in 2024. Some guys, like Steer, were just the ordinary kind of bad you can probably live with. Other guys, like Marte and Benson, were apocalyptically bad.
The reason people look at that group and think “We need an OFer,” is because the corner infield situation is filled with potential. But it’s not filled with results. Marte was a disaster this year. Encarnacion-Strand was really bad briefly, and then hurt. On his wrist. An injury that historically messes with power. Neither of them have career numbers as good as those of Will Benson. No, I’m not kidding. You can look it up.
In short careers, Steer, India, and Friedl have all managed to be above average hitters (again, I’m looking at career numbers). They have the kinds of offensive numbers that you can handle in the outfield. But no one on this list – NO ONE – has the numbers you want from a first baseman or designated hitter. And that is what Cincinnati need.
Candelario ceases to be valuable the second he plays anywhere other than third. Marte has never, as far as I’m aware, been looked at as a guy with enough bat to play first or DH. And we may all have overrated Encarnacion-Strand. Look back at his 2023 numbers. I know there was a hot streak in there, but if 2023 is his ceiling, then he’s not a starting first baseman or DH.
The Reds need to get multiple bats. MULTIPLE. Counting on the current crop to provide significant value from both first and DH is a poor choice. You might get one of those spots covered if you’re lucky. Don’t count on both of them being filled by guys who have not actually proven they can do it.
